Bookies sweat on Ablett's medal

Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett is raging favourite to claim his second Brownlow Medal. Picture: Sarah Reed Source: Sarah Reed / The Advertiser

ONE bookmaker paid out on Gary Ablett winning the Brownlow Medal in early August.

Bad move.

At the time, a spokesman for the company — which erred in paying out early on Chris Judd in 2011 when Dane Swan eventually saluted — said it had learnt its lesson and wouldn't risk it twice.

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Well ...

There's no doubt the Gold Coast captain has played some of his best footy in 2013, even eliciting comparisons with the legendary Leigh Matthews.

And he will start a deserved favourite to take home "Charlie" for the second time after his triumph while at Geelong in 2009.

He was also runner-up in 2010 and, remarkably, hasn't failed to poll at least 20 votes since 2006.

But he's far from bulletproof tomorrow night.

Bombers skipper Jobe Watson with his Brownlow Medal. Picture: Michael Klein. Source: Herald Sun

Ablett will likely vie with Jobe Watson — and maybe Patrick Dangerfield — for the midpoint lead and could possibly have seven best-afield votes by Round 11.

But to take home Gold Coast's first Brownlow Medal, he'll likely need them all because there will be a charge of the light brigade after Round 10.

And the attacks will come from the game's biggest names.

Joel Selwood turned it on in the last quarter against Ablett's Suns at Simonds Stadium in Round 11 and, symbolically, it could be the turning point of the Brownlow count.

From there, the Cats' skipper barely missed a beat and could score as many as 20 votes from that point.

Sam Mitchell's numbers perhaps aren't as imposing on face value.

But the Hawks champion has been a vote-gathering machine for the best part of a decade and has tallied at least 13 votes each season since 2006, including a combined 56 in two runner-up finishes in the past two years.

The Hawks won 19 matches and didn't have a standout all year long — leaving Mitchell, a chance to poll in 13 games, to be more than an outsider if he can convert a few of those into threes.

But, in the opposite vein, Scott Pendlebury could be the man to ease the Pies' pain.

Dane Swan runs in support for Scott Pendlebury. Source: Getty Images

Pendlebury and his midfield mate Dane Swan will be Collingwood's standouts in most wins.

From the time Collingwood trounced Melbourne in Round 11, it's not inconceivable that Pendlebury will nab six best-on-grounds.

If, in doing the form, you can make a case that he topples Swan in Rounds 11 and 12 to pick up six votes, Pendlebury could well win a Brownlow Medal to add to his 2011 Copeland Trophy and 2010 Norm Smith Medal.

In short, it's far from the foregone conclusion we thought it was two months ago.

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